On the national level, inventory of for-sale single family homes, condominiums, townhouses and co-ops declined by -18.85% in April 2012 compared to a year ago, and declined in all but five of the 146 markets covered… These key indicators continue to suggest the housing market may be at a turning point and headed towards a broad-based recovery.
I believe we’re very close to the inflection point (on housing). People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green,” [CEO Jamie Dimon] said… “the shadow inventory everyone talks about is lower today than it was 12 months ago. It will be a lot lower 12 months from now,” he said. Distressed inventory “is actually coming down, not going up. Homes for sale are about half what they were four years ago. You could come up with a pretty bullish case.
Sales in 2011 were at record levels, more than during the bubble, and it looks like 2012 will be an even stronger year – even with some new rules that slow the foreclosure process. The total number of local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in February was 3,794. That’s up from 3,591 in January, and up from 3,371 total sales in February 2011. An important component is the decline in inventory. Total single family inventory was down 15.4% and excluding contingent listings, it was down 45.6% year over year!
The Southland housing market posted the highest number of February home sales in five years as record levels of investor and cash buyers helped spur robust activity under $300,000. The median price paid for homes across the six-county region inched up from January but dropped below the year-earlier level for the 12th consecutive month, a real estate information service reported. The increase in sales between January and February was larger than usual. On average, sales have risen 1.1 percent between those two months since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Southland sales have increased year-over-year for two consecutive months and for six out of the last seven months.
Last month the number of homes that resold rose 11.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, marking the 11th consecutive month in which resales have posted an annual gain. It was the highest number of resales for a November since 2009, and the second-highest since 2005. November sales of newly-built homes also rose from a year earlier, by 9.8 percent, but were still the second-lowest on record for a November. New-home sales have risen year-over-year for the past five consecutive months.
Pending home sales continued to gain in November and reached the highest level in 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The last time the index was higher was in April 2010 when it reached 111.5 as buyers rushed to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
Indicators of market distress in Calirornia continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is high, but not increasing. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, cash and non-owner occupied buying is flat at a high level, DataQuick reported.
Miami-area home sales held at a five-year high in September, rising 15 percent from a year earlier as price reductions and super-low mortgage rates helped stoke year-over-year sales gains across the price spectrum. The median sale price fell short of the year-ago level for the 48th consecutive month but the magnitude of the decline – 1.5 percent – was the smallest yet, a real estate information service reported.
August was the first month since June 2010 to post a year-over-year gain in home sales. Last month was also the first since November 2009 in which all six Southland counties logged higher sales than a year earlier.