Warren Buffett makes several key USA housing points in the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder meeting: Housing completions have been at record lows; there are currently more households being formed than new housing units completed, and this is decreasing the excess supply; the excess supply will be “sopped up” at different rates across the country; housing is a key reason for the sluggish economy (not the only reason).
The housing market in the south of the United States is among the most attractive asset classes in the world, Marc Faber, the editor of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC on Friday, because while homebuilder stocks had rallied, property prices hadn’t moved much. “If you look at the supply of homes, new construction, and you compare it to immigration into the United States, to the growth of the population, then these markets are very attractive from a longer term perspective,” Faber told Bernie Lo on CNBC’s Straight Talk.
Pending home sales continued to gain in November and reached the highest level in 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The last time the index was higher was in April 2010 when it reached 111.5 as buyers rushed to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The reason is perhaps not hard to come by. Rohit Prakash, President – American Full House LLC says, “In the last few years property prices in India have risen significantly. Investors who invested at the lows in India have gained from this rise. They are now looking at booking profits and investing in other assets that are available at reasonable valuations. The US real estate market is one such avenue where prices are currently at the lower end of the range with potential for strong upside. In addition, while smaller investors may be hard pressed to find good properties at $100,000 in India very easily today, there are quite a few such opportunities in the US.”
Real prices are back to 1999/2000 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is also back to 2000 levels in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). On a price-to-rent basis, the Composite 20 index is back to October 2000 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to March 2000. In recent months, rents have been increasing; lowering the price-to-rent ratio.
Rohit Prakash, based in Austin, Texas, has for long been doing brisk business helping Americans and foreigners buy and sell property in the capital of one of America’s biggest states.
Recently, he set up American Full House to cater to Indians looking to buy homes in locations that have seen a huge price drop. An Indian buyer who contacted him sometime ago is close to doing two deals in a suburb of Los Angeles at $82,000 and $85,000 each for a three-bedroom condominium. At the peak of the housing boom, these properties were selling at close to $250,000.
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Indian buyers are mostly exploring cities such as Los Angeles, Las Vegas and other parts of southern California and Phoenix, and Miami, where prices are still 60% lower than the peak.
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Prakash of American Full House points out that rentals in most American markets are still high as people who have foreclosed their homes are looking to rent out property. “One could easily get a return of 6-10% in many markets here,” he says.
A spokesperson of the National Association of Realtors attributed the international appetite to the fact that properties in the US are less expensive compared with foreign properties. Homes in the US are viewed as a secure investment. The average price paid by an international buyer in the US was $315,000 and the states with the heaviest concentration of such buyers are Texas, Florida, California and Arizona. With more and more Indians likely to join the rush, the list is only likely to expand.